THE SPORTS ADVISORS
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 23
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
POINSETTIA BOWL
(at San Diego)
(23) Utah (9-3, 5-7 ATS) vs. California (8-4, 6-6 ATS)
The Utes, who were big-time BCS Bowl busters last year in going 13-0, have to settle for a game with much less prestige this postseason when they face California at Qualcomm Stadium.
Utah opened the season 8-1, including a six-game winning streak following a loss at Oregon in Week 2. But the Utes finished by losing two of their last three, falling to Texas Christian – this year’s Mountain West Conference BCS buster – and archrival Brigham Young 26-23 overtime. Utah did cash as a 7½-point underdog against BYU and enters this contest on a 3-1 ATS run (2-0 ATS last two).
California rolled to blowout victories in its first three games of the season (3-0 ATS), then went just 5-4 SU (3-6 ATS) the rest of the way. After appearing to right the ship with a home win and cover over Arizona and a comeback victory at archrival Stanford, the Golden Bears finished the regular season at Washington and got hammered 42-10 as a 6½-point road chalk.
Utah completed an unbeaten season last year with a 31-17 Sugar Bowl shellacking of Alabama as a 9½-point pup, winning its eighth straight bowl game and cashing for the sixth time in its last seven bowls. The Utes, who have the nation’s longest bowl winning streak, have won all four of their postseason contests under coach Kyle Whittingham (3-1 ATS).
Cal is making its seventh straight bowl appearance, going 5-1 in the first six (3-3 ATS), all with coach Jeff Tedford at the helm. Last year, the Bears topped Miami, Fla., 24-17 in the Emerald Bowl in San Francisco, coming up short as a nine-point favorite.
These teams have split two meetings this decade (both SU and ATS), with the home team and underdog winning and covering each time. Most recently, Utah prevailed 31-24 as a one-point pup in September 2003.
The Utes, who finished third in the MWC standings (behind TCU and BYU), have a fairly balanced offense, averaging 220.1 passing yards per game and a solid 169.4 rushing ypg. RB Eddie Wide leads Utah with 1,033 rushing yards and 13 TDs (12 rushing, 1 receiving, 5.7 ypc). Junior QB Terrance Cain (1,623 passing yards, 11 TDs, 5 INTs) started the first eight games of the year, but freshman Jordan Wynn took over the last four games, finishing the season with 991 yards passing (5 TDs, 3 INTs).
Utah averages 29.2 points and 389.5 yards per outing, while giving up 19.7 ppg and 314.2 ypg.
Cal also sports a balanced offensive attack, at 223.4 passing ypg and 175.4 rushing ypg. QB Kevin Riley threw for 2,636 yards with 17 TDs against just six INTs, and RB Jahvid Best was the Bears’ top rusher with 867 yards and 12 TDs, averaging a stout 6.1 ypc. However, Best hasn’t played since suffering a concussion on a scary end-zone tumble in a 31-14 home loss to Oregon State on Nov. 7. Cal is averaging 29.2 ppg and 398.8 ypg, but is also allowing 24.5 ppg and 377 ypg.
Utah is on ATS rolls 4-1 in December, 4-1 at neutral sites, 26-7-1 as an underdog and 26-12-1 in non-conference play. That said, Utah is 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Pac-10 (including a 31-24 loss at Oregon in September) and 1-4 ATS in its last five against winning teams.
Cal is on ATS runs of 6-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 outside the Pac-10, but it is otherwise in pointspread ruts of 1-4 as a chalk, 3-13 laying three points or less and 3-7 in December.
For Utah, the under is on streaks of 7-2 overall and 4-1 against winning teams, and the under for Cal is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-0 with the Bears favored and 5-2 against winning teams. However, the over is 9-2-1 in the Utes’ last dozen non-conference games, and the over for California is on tears of 5-1 in bowl games, 10-3-1 in non-conference play, 4-1-1 against the Mountain West and 4-1 with the Bears favored.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UTAH and OVER
COLLEGE BASKETBALL
(15) Ole Miss (10-1, 5-2 ATS) at (6) West Virginia (8-0, 3-4 ATS)
The day’s only matchup of Top 25 teams comes from the Coliseum in Morgantown, W.Va., where the sixth-ranked Mountaineers host No. 15 Ole Miss in a non-conference battle.
The Rebels dropped their only game of the season back on Nov. 22 in the Puerto Rico Tip-Off, falling 79-67 to then-No. 5 Villanova as a three-point underdog. Since then, Ole Miss has ripped off six consecutive wins, but only three of those were lined contests (2-1 ATS). Most recently, the Rebels dumped Centenary 108-64 in a non-lined home win Saturday, setting a high-water mark for points scored in topping their previous high of 92. Ole Miss has played just one true road game this year, knocking off Arkansas State 79-57 as a 10-point chalk.
West Virginia took a 13-point lead into halftime at Cleveland State on Saturday, then built that lead to 17 before withstanding the Vikings’ furious second-half rally and holding on for an 80-78 road win, falling way short of covering as a 15½-point road chalk. The Mountaineers, who committed a season-high 17 turnovers (11 in the second half) against Cleveland State, have their highest national ranking since the 1981-82 season.
These teams met last December at Ole Miss, and the Mountaineers escaped with an 80-79 victory, but came up just short of covering as a 2½-point road favorite.
Ole Miss has scored more than 80 points in four straight games and eight of 11 contests, and it has been held under 73 points just once (in the loss to Villanova). The Rebels are putting up 85.4 points per game on 48.2 percent shooting, while yielding 67.9 ppg (41.3 percent).
West Virginia has scored at least 80 points in half of its eight contests, tallying 68 or more in every game, and Bob Huggins’ squad is pouring in 76.4 ppg (45.6 percent shooting). The Mountaineers’ strength, though, is on defense, as it is giving up just 58 ppg on 43.9 percent shooting. Cleveland State became the first team this season to crack the 70-point barrier versus West Virginia.
The Rebels are on ATS tears of 5-2 overall (all in non-conference play) and 20-6 on Wednesday. The Mountaineers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after a non-cover, but 5-11 ATS in their last 16 non-conference contests.
Ole Miss has topped the total in eight of 11 lined affairs, 15 of 21 non-conference games and five of seven after a SU win, but the Rebels have stayed low in seven of nine on the road. West Virginia is 5-2 “over” in its last seven overall, but the under has hit in five of the Mountaineers’ last six Wednesday outings. Last year’s meeting between these schools in Oxford, Miss., flew over the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Illinois (8-3, 4-6 ATS) vs. Missouri (7-3, 3-3 ATS)
(at St. Louis)
Illinois guns for its 10th straight victory over regional rival Missouri when these squads square off at the Scottrade Center in St. Louis.
The Illini saw its four-game winning streak halted in Saturday’s 70-67 loss at Georgia as an 8½-point favorite. Illinois has scored at least 76 points in all eight wins (averaging 84.4 ppg) but managed just 64.3 ppg in its three losses. Still, for the season, the Illini are putting up 79 ppg and making nearly half of their shots (49.1 percent), while holding the opposition to 65.1 ppg (39.8 percent).
The Tigers are coming off three straight non-lined games, losing at Oral Roberts (60-59) followed by home victories over Fairleigh Dickinson (87-36) and Arkansas-Pine Bluff (88-70). Missouri has faced just two teams from power conference this year, beating Oregon 106-69 as a 12½-point home favorite and losing 89-83 at Vanderbilt as a 3½-point road underdog. Missouri has scored 83 points or more in seven of 10 games, but tallied just 66, 52 and 59 in its other three contests. The Tigers are strong on defense, giving up only 61.2 ppg (37.5 percent shooting), with only two opponents scoring 70 or more.
Illinois has won nine straight over Missouri, going 5-3-1 ATS. After two straight narrow wins by a total of four points in 2006 and 2007, the Illini pummeled the Tigers last year 75-59 as a four-point underdog at the Scottrade Center. The pup has cashed in three straight meetings in this rivalry and is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six.
Illinois is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 against the Big 12 and 29-13-2 ATS in its last 44 on Wednesday. Missouri is on pointspread surges of 16-7 overall, 17-5 at home, 5-2 on Wednesday and 8-3 against winning teams, but the Tigers have failed to cover in five of seven versus Big Ten foes.
The Illini have topped the total in all seven lined games this season and they’re on additional “over” runs of 11-1 overall, 8-0 in non-conference games and 5-1 after a SU defeat, while Missouri is on “over” rolls of 5-2 overall and 7-2 on Wednesday. However, the under is 9-3 in Illinois’ last 12 against Big 12 opponents, 8-3 in its last 11 on Wednesday and 10-3 in Mizzou’s last 13 against the Big Ten.
Finally, the last two meetings in this rivalry have stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ILLINOIS
NBA
Houston (17-11, 18-10 ATS) at Orlando (21-7, 15-13 ATS)
The Rockets shoot for their third straight win overall and their fourth consecutive victory over the Magic when they make their only trip of the season to Amway Arena.
Houston is coming off Tuesday’s 108-99 victory over the Clippers, barely cashing as an 8½-point home chalk. The Rockets have won three in a row, six of eight and nine of 12, and they’re 9-3 ATS during that stretch. Additionally, the SU winner is 12-2 ATS in Houston’s last 14 games, including 8-0 ATS in its last eight.
Orlando improved to 4-1 in its last five games (4-0 at home) with Monday’s 104-99 home win over the Jazz, but it came up short as a 7½-point road favorite, falling to 2-5 ATS in its last seven overall. The Magic have played just five home games since Thanksgiving, winning all five by an average of 11 ppg, but going just 3-2 ATS. For the season, the Magic are 11-2 at Amway Arena (7-6 ATS).
Houston is on a 6-1 SU and ATS roll against the Magic, including winning and covering the last three in a row. Additionally, the Rockets have won seven straight games in Orlando (7-0 ATS), including four outright upsets, and they’re 12-2 SU and ATS in the last 14 series meetings overall. Also, the SU winner has cashed in each of the last 26 battles between these squads.
The Rockets are riding ATS hot streaks of 6-2 overall, 8-3 on the highway, 6-2 on Wednesday, 5-1 against the Eastern Conference and 35-15-1 versus the Southeast Division. Orlando has cashed in six of eight on Wednesday and seven of 10 after getting one day of rest, but otherwise the Magic are in ATS slides of 2-5 overall, 5-11 against Western Conference clubs, 0-4 against the Southwest Division and 1-5 versus winning teams.
Houston is on “under” stretches of 9-4 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 4-1 against the Southeast Division and 11-5 when playing on back-to-back days. The under is also 5-2 in Orlando’s last seven against Southwest Division, but otherwise the Magic are on “over” rolls of 10-3 at home, 9-0 on Wednesday, 4-1 when playing after one day of rest and 7-2 versus winning teams.
Finally, the under is 6-3 in the last nine clashes between these teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER
Atlanta (20-7 SU and ATS) at Denver (19-9, 14-14 ATS)
Two of the NBA’s top teams square off inside the Pepsi Center, where the Nuggets look to avenge their worst defeat of a season when they host the Hawks.
Atlanta continued its four-game road trip with Tuesday’s 112-87 whipping of the Timberwolves as a 9½-point road favorite. The Hawks, who had a six-game winning streak snapped in Saturday’s 101-98 overtime loss at Chicago as a four-point road favorite, have won seven of their last eight both SU and ATS. Atlanta, which is 8-5 (9-4 ATS) on the highway, has scored 110 points or more in five of its last seven contests.
The SU winner has covered the spread in 25 of Atlanta’s 27 games this year, including the last 14 in a row overall and the last 12 in a row on the road.
Denver is coming off back-to-back road losses at New Orleans (98-92) and Memphis (102-96), failing to cover in both contests. The Nuggets played both games without star point guard Chauncey Billups, who is listed as doubtful for this contest. Denver has followed up an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS run by going 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games, but all four losses came on the road. The Nuggets are 12-1 at the Pepsi Center (8-5 ATS), winning the last five in a row (3-2 ATS).
The Nuggets’ second loss of the season came at Atlanta on Nov. 7, and it was an ugly 125-100 setback as a three-point road underdog. The host has taken five in a row and eight of the last 10 between these squads, while the Hawks are 7-2 ATS in the last nine series clashes overall and 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to the Mile High City. Finally, the favorite has covered in five of the last six meetings.
Atlanta is on a boatload of positive pointspread streaks, including 7-1 overall, 17-4-1 against the Western Conference, 8-0-1 versus the Northwest Division, 8-0 on Wednesday and 5-2 when playing on consecutive nights. Denver is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five on Wednesday, but George Karl’s squad has failed to cash in six of seven overall and five of six against the Southeast Division.
The under is 7-1 in the Hawks’ last eight roadies, but the over is 16-5 in their last 21 on Wednesday and 4-0 in their last four against winning teams. Denver has stayed low in four of five overall and four of five after two days’ rest, but the Nuggets have topped the total in five straight Wednesday outings and four straight versus winning teams.
Lastly, these teams have gone over the total in their last four head-to-head meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
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